International Water Wars/Conflicts

Water is a resource which is in ‘overwhelming, constant and immediate need’ and one that has no substitute (Wolf, 1999:3.) Water has always been highly political, demonstrated through the arguments and conflicts in Africa occurring over the ownership of water. The quantity as well as the quality of river flows for downstream riparian states is reliant on the upkeep of upstream riparian. 

Below are some quotes highlighting the significance of water in resource conflicts and possibly war:

     ‘The Wars of the Next Century will be over Water’ (Ismail Serageldin - Vice President of the World Bank)  

‘The next war in our region will be over the waters of the Nile’ (Boutros Boutros-Ghali) 

Figure 1: The Nile River and the
 major water infrastructure (Wheeler et al, 2020.)

60% of the African population live upon a transboundary waters – river basins, lake basins and aquifers – which are shared between two or more countries (Altchenko and Villholth, 2013.) Transboundary waters will be discussed in this post in the context of the Nile River. The Nile is the longest river in the world (6,700km), it provides 11 African countries with water including Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt and Uganda. These countries are classified as water-stressed. The Nile has three tributaries: the Blue Nile, the White Nile and the Atbara River. The largest contributor to the Nile flow is the Blue Nile. Ethiopia contributes 75-80% of the annual flow from the Blue Nile and Atbara River with peaks of 5,66m³/s and lows of 

 113m³/s. A number of dams exist along the course of the Nile including the Aswan High Dam (AHD), Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and Roseires Dam. 

The Aswan High Dam and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: 

In this ever-increasing period of water stress, the management of water is essential for national production of food, to promote sustainable development and to ensure peaceful cooperation between neighbouring countries. Climate change is set to create unprecedented levels of annual and decadal variability of both rainfall and river flow (Conway, 2005.) Conflicts and wars over transboundary water ownership can be exacerbated by dams. Dams can cut water supply low for downstream riparians, straining and potentially halting irrigated agriculture.

The Aswan High Damn was completed in 1971 in order to regulate the uncertain river supply and to establish an irrigation supply for the Nile Valley. Irrigation is critical for stable food production. On average the dam releases 55 km³ of water annually, of which approximately 46km³ are diverted into irrigation canals (Yousef, 2013.) Egypt and Sudan claimed riverine integrity over the River Nile meaning every riparian is entitled to the natural flow of a river system crossing its borders. This overreached territorial rights which would have fallen to Ethiopia. In 2010 5 upstream riparians - Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda - signed the 'Cooperative Framework Agreement. This states that they were tired of needing Egypt's permission before adopting any development project on the river Nile. 

The agreement allowed for the construction of GERD (announced in 2011) however there were fears over the detrimental effects it had on Egypt. GERD's reservoir holds a capacity of 74 billion m³ , equivalent to over 40% of Egypt’s total annual water supply and taking 5-15 years to fill. Construction was completed in 2020.

Treaties and agreements are needed to ensure cooperation notably multiple players need to be consulted in the process including water management agencies, urban planners, agricultural services, power  authorities and development agencies for all countries involved in the river basin. Next week, I will be discussing the effect of damns exclusively on food production in Egypt.