Effect of Dams on Food Production

The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has had negative implications on the food production of nations downstream in particular in Egypt.

As discussed in last week’s blog post, transboundary river basins struggle to maintain a balance of water supply for all its riparians. Issues stem from the decisions behind who has rights over the water in question.

Figure 1: GERD Dam (CNN, 2018)

Before discussing the impacts GERD construction and will have once operational, it is important to note that the dam ended Egypt’s monopoly hold on the river; even though the main contributor to the Nile's water supply is Ethiopia. In 2010, upstream nations - Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda - signed the Cooperative Framework Agreement,' further contending the dam's construction.  

The reservoir of GERD, 74 billion m3 at full capacity, will cause major setbacks for the food security of Egypt as amount is equivalent to 40% of Egypt’s annual total.  This will be exacerbated if the reservoir is filled during a dry season given that water downstream stop. During the filling process, food production is estimated to decrease from 9-19% and 4% whilst GERD is operation (Elsayed et al,2020.) Therefore,  desertification threatens Egypt’s arable land utilised in food crop cultivations can drastically diminish levels of food security. 

Egypt is a key exemplar of the strong correlation between water security and food security, and to further socioeconomic development. Egypt is heavily reliant on irrigation from the river. Agriculture contributes to 1/8 of the Egypt’s GDP as well as making up ¼ of the country’s labour force. The main crop exports in agriculture for Egypt are rice, wheat and corn.  The economy is under major pressure if there is a reduction in water flows due to the GERD, and its associated reduction of arable land. Directly food security will be reduced, linked through the impacts of food quantity therefore food prices and as a whole the level of food security for its population – currently 27 million people suffer from severe water scarcity (Mekonnen & Hoekstra, 2016.)

The uncertainty aftermath of construction of the GERD can be limited with debated reservoir retention policies put in place between Egypt and Ethiopia. No such agreement has occurred despite the construction advancing. It is this, mentioned in last week’s blog, that causes arguments and crises between upstream and downstream states. It is critical for politicians to come to an agreement on the fair use of transboundary river basins in order to achieve water security and achieve food security through irrigated food production. This is especially important in the Nile River as its river basin supplies 11 countries with water.

It is important to look at all stakeholders sides when discussing the construction of GERD including as upstream/downstream riparians. Due to the contention regarding construction a panel was formed to investigate and discuss the consequences of the dam for Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, concluding that no adverse effects existed against the two downstream nations.

Benefits of construction included:

• A constant water flow

• Further improved water management – vital for these water-stressed nations.

• Reduce flooding in Sudan

• Reducing the risks of desertification, especially important in arable land hence

• Reducing evapotranspiration losses

• Reducing Egypt’s water waste, of 12 million m3 annually, thus increasing water supply for food production.

It is necessary therefore for Egypt and Sudan to recognise Ethiopia’s right to construct water infrastructure for its benefit and not hold a monopoly over the shared resource.

As shown in this blog post, the Egyptian economy is much dependent on water security to promote high levels of agriculture to assist its GDP. In order for these levels to become more sustainable, Egypt could benefit from trade of Virtual Water, which we will discuss in next week’s blog. Adaptations in food production in relation to water are essential for maintaining food security and development